Key Takeaways
- Lancaster ranks 5th nationally in the Winter 2026 Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking which highlights top metros offering a balance of affordability, value, improving supply, and great livability.
- See my opinion on Lancaster’s future and affordability in LNP’s most recent article from February 4th.
- 62% of buyers nationally purchased homes below list price in 2025, with an average discount of 8%—the largest since 2012 (Redfin analysis).
- The U.S. housing market had over 600,000 more sellers than buyers in December, giving buyers unprecedented negotiating power.
- Despite economic concerns, consumer finances remain resilient with banks reporting unusually high debt payment rates.
- The job market shows weakness with job openings at their lowest since September 2020, but key data is delayed due to the recent government shutdown.
The power has shifted: It’s a buyer’s market
If you’ve been waiting for the right time to buy, that time may be now. The housing market is swinging decisively toward buyers, with sellers offering discounts and concessions at rates we haven’t seen in over a decade.
By the numbers:
- 62% of buyers paid less than the original list price in 2025
- Average discount: 8% for homes that sold below asking
- Record seller surplus: 600,000+ more sellers than buyers nationally
“When there is this gap between what sellers expect and what buyers can afford, it’s the buyers that end up negotiating that lower price,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “Sellers aren’t the ones that dictate prices—it’s buyers that do.”
What’s driving this shift?
The market has completely flipped from the pandemic frenzy of 2020-2022. Back then, bidding wars were routine and buyers went to extreme lengths to win offers. Today, elevated mortgage rates and high home prices have sidelined many would-be buyers, leaving those who can afford to buy with significantly more negotiating power.
Lancaster County perspective
While we don’t have February data yet for Lancaster County, the national trends suggest this is an opportune moment for qualified buyers in our market. Unlike the overheated markets in Florida and Texas where 85%+ of buyers are getting discounts, Lancaster remains a more balanced market—meaning competitive offers are still important, but buyers have room to negotiate.
December data showed active listings at 517 which is 20.7% above the 5 year December average of 420 listings. In December, the average over list price ratio in Lancaster was 103.3%. Any figure over 100 means that homes are selling above their initial list price.
This signals Lancaster County is not yet fully in a buyers’ market. However, Mortgage Craft is seeing price discounts on homes, specifically those priced under $300,000 which are a sweet spot for most first time homebuyers. Homes above the $300,000 purchase price if they are well maintained and in good locations are not seeing price cuts—meaning there is still competition for these homes.
What this means for buyers:
- You have more leverage to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs
- Sellers are more willing to offer concessions
- Don’t be afraid to make an offer below asking price on homes that have been sitting
- Work with Mortgage Craft to get pre-qualified so you can act quickly when you find the right home
What this means for sellers:
- Gone are the days of overpricing and waiting for multiple offers
- Homes priced realistically are selling; overpriced homes are sitting
- Consider offering seller concessions to help buyers with closing costs
- Listen to your agent’s pricing advice—the 2021 playbook doesn’t work anymore
Consumer finances: Surprisingly resilient
Despite headlines about economic uncertainty, there’s encouraging news about consumer financial health that’s relevant for the housing market.
According to recent banking data, major credit card issuers reported steady delinquency and charge-off rates in the fourth quarter alongside continued growth in card spending. More notably, several lenders including Synchrony Financial and Bank of America flagged unusually high payment rates—a sign that many households are being more aggressive about paying down debt.
“Consumers have been resilient all year,” said Synchrony Chief Executive Brian Doubles. “Better than we expected.”
Why this matters for housing:
When we pull credit reports for mortgage qualification at Mortgage Craft, the financial health of applicants directly impacts their ability to secure financing. The fact that consumers are aggressively paying down debt is a positive signal for:
- Buyers: Keep maintaining that strong credit profile. Being current on all bills and reducing debt balances will help you qualify for the best rates.
- Realtors: Your buyers who are financially disciplined are in a strong position to compete, even in a market with limited inventory.
- Sellers: A healthy pool of qualified buyers means there are still plenty of people who can afford to purchase your home at the right price.
Job market concerns on the horizon
While consumer finances look healthy, the employment picture is more concerning. The job market is off to a rough start in 2026, with several troubling indicators:
Key employment data:
- Job openings fell by 386,000 in December to their lowest level since September 2020
- 108,400 job cuts were announced in January, up sharply from 35,500 the prior month—the highest number of job cuts for January since 2009
- Private sector added just 22,000 jobs in January, less than half what economists expected
- Unemployment claims rose to 231,000 last week, above the 212,000 expected
The government’s official January jobs report has been delayed until February 11 due to the recent partial government shutdown, creating uncertainty in the market. As this article explains, economists are relying on private data sources in the interim, which aren’t as comprehensive as official government reports.
What this means for the housing market:
A weakening job market has direct implications:
- For buyers: Employment stability is crucial for mortgage qualification. If you’re concerned about your job security, talk to us about your options before making a home purchase.
- For sellers: A slowing labor market could reduce the buyer pool if unemployment rises or if buyer confidence wanes. This reinforces the importance of realistic pricing.
- For financial advisors: Clients considering home purchases should have strong employment stability and emergency reserves given the uncertain economic picture.
What’s moving interest rates this week
The recent government shutdown has created unusual uncertainty in the mortgage market because it deprived markets of key economic data that typically influences rate movements.
Key dates to watch:
Wednesday, February 11
- Official January jobs report (delayed from original Feb 7 date)
- This will be the most important data release affecting rates this week
Friday, February 13
- January inflation data
Both of these reports were delayed by the government shutdown and will have significant impact on mortgage rates. We’ll be monitoring closely and will keep our clients informed of any major rate movements.
For government-backed loans (FHA, USDA, VA): The shutdown may cause slower processing times. If you’re using one of these loan programs, build in extra time for your closing timeline.
Bottom line
The housing market has fundamentally shifted in favor of buyers, creating opportunities we haven’t seen since before the pandemic. With 62% of buyers nationally securing discounts and sellers outnumbering buyers by record margins, those who are financially prepared have real negotiating power.
At the same time, we’re keeping a close eye on the weakening job market and the uncertainty created by delayed economic data. The next few weeks will be critical as we get key employment and inflation reports that could influence both home prices and mortgage rates.
Ready to buy? Contact Mortgage Craft to get pre-qualified and understand your purchasing power. In this market, being prepared means being able to act when you find the right opportunity.
