Key Takeaways
- Lancaster County is ranked #10 hottest market in the nation and is firmly a seller’s market.
- Nationally, existing home sales rose 1.7% in February — a welcome rebound — but mortgage rates have climbed back above their low since the Iran war began.
- February inflation held at 2.4%, but that number is already old news. Oil at $82/barrel means March inflation is going to be hotter.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback — and for some buyers, they make a lot of sense right now.
- Current interest rates available with Mortgage Craft are at the bottom of the email.
A seller’s market hiding in plain sight
Nationally, the housing market is cooling. Home prices are falling. Inventory is growing. Homes are sitting longer. But here in Lancaster County? A completely different story.
According to Realtor.com‘s weekly data for the week ending March 7, the national picture looks like this:
- New listings: +1.5% year over year (barely positive — and the year-to-date total is actually down 2.5%)
- Active inventory: +6.2% year over year (slowing fast — it was growing 30% YoY at this time last year)
- Median days on market: 58 days — 4 days slower than last year
- Median list price: -2.4% year over year — the 20th consecutive week of flat or negative price growth
This means buyers nationally have leverage they haven’t had in years.
Lancaster County, January 2026
Lancaster is telling a different story entirely. According to Realtor.com‘s Lancaster County market data:
- Median home price: $374,900 — up +4.14% year over year
- Median days on market: 41 days — down 5.88% year over year (homes are selling faster)
- Sale-to-list ratio: 100% — sellers are getting their asking price
- **Realtor.com Hotness Index:** 97 out of 100 — ranked #10 in the entire country
- Market status: Seller’s market
What does this mean for Lancaster buyers?
- Competition is real. Lancaster homes are selling at full asking price and moving fast — 41 days on market is well below the national average of 58-66 days.
- That said, conditions vary by neighborhood and price point. Some homes are sitting longer and seeing price cuts.
- Want to know how to make your offer stand out? That’s exactly what we help with — reach out and let’s talk strategy.
What does this mean for Lancaster sellers?
- You’re in a strong position. Lancaster’s price growth is holding up far better than most of the country, and the demand is still there — particularly from buyers locked out of pricier metros.
- But “strong market” doesn’t mean “any price.” Overpriced homes are still sitting. Pricing with the data matters now more than ever.
ARMs are back — and this time, they make sense
One of the most interesting trends we’re watching right now: adjustable-rate mortgages are making a real comeback.
ARMs faded from popularity after helping fuel the 2008 financial crisis — and for good reason. But today’s ARMs are very different from the products that caused so much damage back then. Regulations since 2008 have required longer initial fixed-rate periods, so the “teaser rate” now lasts 5, 7, or even 10 years before adjusting.
Here’s the math that’s attracting buyers:
- 30-year fixed rate: ~6.0%
- 7-year ARM: ~5.5%
That half-point difference translates to real monthly savings — and for buyers who plan to refinance or sell within 7 years, it’s a risk worth seriously considering.
ARMs are especially popular on loans over $1 million, where they account for more than twice the market share as in the broader market. In high-cost metros like California and Massachusetts, buyers are using ARMs to qualify for larger loan amounts while waiting for fixed rates to come down.
What this means for you:
- ARMs are not for everyone. If your financial situation could change — job loss, for example — you may not qualify to refinance when your fixed period ends.
- But if you have a stable income and a realistic plan to refinance within 5–7 years, an ARM could save you meaningful money right now.
- Ask us to run the numbers for your specific scenario. We’ll show you exactly what the payment difference looks like.
Inflation, oil, and the Iran factor
February’s inflation report came in at 2.4% year over year — right in line with expectations. Shelter costs were up 3%, food prices rose 3.1%, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in at 2.5%.
But here’s the thing: that report is already a relic. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, and oil prices have since climbed from an average of $65/barrel in February to $82/barrel so far in March. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping.
As a rule of thumb, every $10 increase in oil adds about 0.2 percentage points to measured inflation. That means March’s reading could be meaningfully hotter than February’s — and that has real implications for the Fed.
The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation. If the Iran conflict keeps oil elevated, the Fed faces a difficult choice: fight inflation with higher rates, or protect a softening labor market with cuts. Neither path is simple.
What this means for mortgage rates:
- Mortgage rates briefly dipped in late February — the first time since 2022. That brought buyers off the sidelines and helped push February home sales up 1.7%.
- Rates have climbed a little since then, but are still better than 6 months ago. If inflation runs hotter in March, that upward pressure could continue.
- We are watching this closely. If rates move, we’ll let you know.
