Key Takeaways
- The Iran war is pushing oil above $100/barrel, raising short-term inflation expectations — but economists still doubt a U.S. recession.
- The Fed held rates steady again and signaled fewer cuts ahead in 2026.
- Nationally, home prices are falling for the 21st consecutive week. Lancaster County is a different story.
- Lancaster remains a seller’s market — homes are selling in a median of 27 days at or near asking price.
The Big Picture: Oil, Inflation & the Fed
The biggest story in the economy right now is the Mideast war and its ripple effects on oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
According to a Wall Street Journal survey of 50 economists conducted March 16–18, here’s where things stand:
- Recession probability has risen to 32% (up from 27% in January) — elevated, but still a minority view.
- Economists estimate it would take $138/barrel oil sustained for ~14 weeks to tip recession odds above 50%. U.S. oil closed at $96.32/barrel on Wednesday, up from a February average of ~$65.
- Inflation forecasts are rising: economists now expect the consumer-price index to hit 2.9% by December 2026, up from a 2.6% forecast in January.
- Fewer Fed rate cuts expected: the consensus now points to 1–2 quarter-point cuts in 2026, down from two cuts projected in January.
“Given the ongoing war in the Middle East, surging oil prices, high tariffs, AI and the severe constraints on immigration, it is worthwhile noting how resilient the U.S. economy has been so far,” said Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group. “But we must not take this resilience for granted.”
The Fed: Holding Steady, But With Less Room to Cut
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% — the second consecutive meeting with no change. This means mortgage rates are hovering around high 5% to low 6% for a 30 year mortgage.
A few key takeaways for buyers and real estate professionals:
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered little encouragement for near-term rate cuts. He noted the Fed’s current stance is close to “neutral,” meaning it would take economic deterioration to justify easing.
- Underlying inflation accelerated to 3.1% in January — the highest since last year — even before the war pushed energy prices higher.
- The labor market is softening: the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%.
What this means for mortgage rates: Rates have risen for three consecutive weeks. The uncertainty from the Iran war makes it very difficult to predict a clear path down. We’re watching this closely and will keep you updated on any meaningful moves.
Lancaster County Real Estate: Still Holding Strong
While the national picture is mixed, Lancaster County continues to outperform.
According to Realtor.com‘s latest Lancaster County data:
| Metric | Lancaster County | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Median Listing Price | $375,000 | +1.38% |
| Median Days on Market | 27 days | Flat |
| Active Listings | 1,295 | -2.20% |
| Sale-to-List Price Ratio | 100% | — |
| Hotness Index Rank | #11 Nationally | — |
Lancaster County is ranked #11 in the nation on Realtor.com‘s Hotness Index. Homes are selling at full asking price in a median of just 27 days. Inventory is actually down 2.2% year over year — meaning there are fewer homes to choose from now than a year ago.
Compare that to the national picture from Realtor.com’s weekly housing trends report (week ending March 14, 2026):
- New listings fell 1.4% year over year nationally
- Median listing prices fell 2.3% year over year — the 21st consecutive week of flat or negative price growth
- Homes spent 4 more days on market than a year ago nationally (57 days median)
Lancaster is doing the opposite. Prices are up, homes move fast, and sellers are holding firm on price.
What does this mean for buyers?
- Inventory is tight. If you’re serious about buying this spring, now is the time to get pre-qualified and ready to move quickly.
- Rates have ticked up, but prices in Lancaster remain more attainable than most markets nationally. Don’t let rate noise keep you on the sidelines.
- We’re seeing more competitive offers again. Want to know how to make your offer stand out? Ask us — we have strategies.
What does this mean for sellers?
- Lancaster is still firmly a seller’s market. Homes priced correctly are moving in under 30 days.
- The national softness will eventually reach us if economic headwinds intensify. Now is still a very favorable window.
What does this mean for financial advisors?
- Clients sitting on cash or equity should understand that Lancaster real estate has held its value better than almost any comparable market in the country.
- Rising rates and oil-driven inflation uncertainty make real assets more attractive — and Lancaster homes are performing.