Key takeaways
- Mortgage rate volatility is at extreme levels. The 30-year fixed rate swung from below 6% in February to the mid-6% range by the end of March — one of the sharpest swings in recent memory.
- The Iran war is the primary driver of rate increases right now, pushing up oil prices, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields.
- The Federal Reserve is openly discussing whether rate cuts are over — and some officials have even floated the possibility of a rate increase.
- Healthcare workers — especially nurses — are among the most financially stable buyers in the market right now. The WSJ reports that registered nurses earn a median of $93,600/year, with advanced-degree nurses at $132,050.
Quick note:
This is a particularly important week to stay close to your buyers. With rates moving sharply, the difference between an offer on Saturday and a rate lock conversation on Monday could be significant. If any of your clients have questions about what they can still afford or want to check their numbers, please have them reach out to us directly. We’re here.
When rates move this fast, buyers get nervous
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the mortgage market is experiencing “extreme volatility” — and they’re not exaggerating. Here’s a quick recap of what happened:
- In February, economic uncertainty pushed mortgage rates below 6% for the first time in more than three years.
- Then, the Trump administration and Israel launched attacks on Iran. Oil prices jumped. Inflation expectations rose. Treasury yields followed and so did mortgage rates.
- By end of March, the 30-year fixed had climbed back into the mid-6% range, its highest point of the year.
Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy put it plainly: “The swing from below 6% back into the mid-6% range isn’t just a technical move — it meaningfully changes purchasing power.” In fact, about a third of the affordability gains buyers saw earlier this year have already reversed.
For buyers who got pre-approved in January or February, it’s worth a quick check-in to make sure their numbers still work. If your buyer locked in a rate at the low, they made a very smart move. If they haven’t yet, let’s talk strategy.
What does this mean for buyers?
- Lock rates sooner rather than later when the opportunity arises. The “wait and see” approach is riskier right now than usual.
- If you got pre-qualified a few weeks ago, reach out to us to confirm your purchasing power is still where you expect it to be.
- Don’t let short-term volatility keep you out of the market entirely — Lancaster County remains affordable by national standards.
What does this mean for sellers?
- Rate-sensitive buyers may pause or reduce their price range. Pricing your listing competitively from day one is more important than ever.
- Buyers who are in the market right now are serious and motivated — they haven’t dropped out because of volatility. Work with them.
A buyer profile you may not be thinking about: nurses
The Wall Street Journal ran a fascinating piece this week on the rise of healthcare jobs — and for those of us in real estate and mortgage, it’s worth paying attention.
Registered nurses in the U.S. earn a median of $93,600/year. Nurse practitioners and those with advanced degrees earn $132,050/year on average. The Labor Department projects advanced-degree nurse employment will grow 35% from 2024 to 2034 — far exceeding the 3% average for all occupations.
Healthcare is now the largest source of job creation in the U.S., overtaking manufacturing and retail. These workers have stable jobs, growing incomes, and are buying homes.
Why does this matter for realtors and financial advisors?
- If you’re not actively marketing to healthcare workers and nurses, you’re missing one of the most financially stable buyer pools in Lancaster County.
- Penn Medicine Lancaster General, WellSpan, and UPMC are major local employers. Lancaster County has a significant nursing workforce.
A quick reminder: protect your listings at open houses
This one is for our realtor partners specifically. The Wall Street Journal highlighted what many of us already know: open houses create real vulnerability for sellers.
A few reminders worth sharing with your sellers before every showing:
- Remove medications, especially opioids. This is the most commonly stolen item at showings.
- Secure or remove valuables — jewelry, art, wine, and collectibles should be off-site or locked away.
- Use the buddy system for large homes. One agent can’t be everywhere. A second agent at an open house is good risk management, not overkill.
- Electronic lockboxes are your friend — they log who enters and when.
- Interior cameras act as a deterrent. Remind buyers they may be on camera — that alone reduces incidents.
The article noted a Harrisburg-area broker who dealt with a rash of open house thefts — two individuals would arrive, with one distracting the agent while the other searched for medications. Lancaster County is not immune to this. A few simple precautions go a long way.
Market News: Interest Rates
What happened?
The Federal Reserve is in a complicated position right now. According to the WSJ, officials who were previously considered neutral or dovish are now openly discussing the possibility that further rate cuts are on hold — or that rates may need to rise.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said: “I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates.”
- Governor Christopher Waller, previously one of the strongest advocates for cuts, cited Iran war inflation risks when he supported holding steady in March.
- The Fed’s latest dot plot projects one more cut this year — but Fed Chair Powell himself said to “take the forecast with a grain of salt.”
- Inflation, using the Fed’s preferred gauge, is currently around 3% — above the 2% target for six straight years.
The string of six rate cuts that began in September 2024 may be over. That’s a significant shift from where we started the year.