Key Takeaways
- The Fed has paused rate cuts — and some economists are now asking if they’re off the table entirely (WSJ).
- Lancaster County continues to show resilience — new listings are up +6.3% year over year and homes are selling at 103.3% of list price.
- Median sold price in Lancaster for March 2026 hit $345,000, up +4.4% from March 2025.
Why Home Prices Can’t Crash (Even When the Market Feels Weak)
There’s a question we’re hearing from buyers and sellers alike right now: If the market is slowing down, why aren’t prices dropping?
Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s Chief Economist, breaks down the math in a way that’s worth understanding if you’re active in today’s market.
The short answer: homeowners have too much equity and too little reason to sell.
Here are the key data points she shares:
- There are 630,000 more sellers than buyers nationally — a record gap. And yet prices aren’t falling.
- 80% of homeowners with mortgages are locked into rates below today’s 6.3%. Many are at 3% or less. Selling means giving that up and paying roughly $1,100 more per month for a comparable home. Economists call this the golden handcuff effect.
- Home values are up 50% since the pandemic. Homeowners are equity-rich and have no financial pressure to sell.
- 34% of sellers are cutting their asking prices — but that’s different from a price crash. It means overpriced homes are being corrected, not that the market is collapsing.
- Empty nester baby boomers own 28% of the nation’s large homes while millennial families own just 16%. Americans 70+ hold 26% of the country’s $48 trillion in real estate wealth — up from 17% two decades ago. That wealth isn’t circulating.
What does this mean for you?
- Buyers: A weak national market doesn’t mean prices are coming down to meet you. The inventory constraint is structural, not temporary. Waiting for a crash that the math says can’t happen may cost you more in the long run.
- Sellers: Your equity is your protection. But as inventory ticks up and buyer demand softens, the window for above-list-price offers is narrowing. Pricing right the first time is more important than ever.
- Lancaster specifically: Our local data mirrors this dynamic. Homes are still selling at 103.3% of list price — but active inventory is up year over year. The market is softening at the edges while the floor holds firm.
Are Rate Cuts Off the Table?
For most of 2024, the conversation in mortgage and real estate circles was when the Fed would cut rates — not if. That conversation has shifted.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are firmly on pause, and the question now being asked on Wall Street is whether they’re coming back at all. A resilient labor market and stubborn inflation are giving the Fed very little reason to cut — and some reason to hold or even raise rates if conditions change.
What does this mean for mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed’s rate, but Fed policy signals have a real effect on the bond market — and that’s what drives your mortgage rate. Here’s the practical takeaway:
- Don’t wait for rates to fall. If you’re waiting for a dramatic rate drop before buying, you may be waiting a long time — and competing with a much larger buyer pool when it happens.
- Today’s rate is a starting point, not a life sentence. We always say: date the rate, marry the house. You can refinance later. You can’t buy the same house twice.
- Locking in now has real advantages. With inventory still tight in Lancaster County, buyers who are ready and pre-qualified have leverage that rate-waiters don’t.
Have questions about where rates are headed or how to structure your offer in today’s market? Reply to this email — we’re happy to talk through your situation.
Lancaster County Market Update
Here’s how Lancaster County performed in March 2026, according to the Lancaster County Association of Realtors.
- New Listings: 470 (+6.3% year over year)
- New Pendings: 425 (-2.5% year over year)
- Closed Sales: 342 (-2.3% year over year)
- Median Sold Price: $345,000 (+4.4% year over year)
- Active Listings: 535 (up from 469 in March 2025)
- Average Days on Market: 29 days
- Average Sold-to-List Price Ratio: 103.3%
The 5-year March average for closed sales is 362 — we came in just below that at 342, but the price story is strong. The median sold price is well above the 5-year March average of $312,000.
What does this mean for Lancaster buyers and sellers?
- Sellers: Lancaster is still a seller-friendly market. Homes are selling for over list price on average (103.3%), which means a well-priced, well-presented home will move. Active inventory is ticking up, so pricing correctly from the start matters more than ever.
- Buyers: You need to be ready to move quickly and make competitive offers. With average days on market at 29 days and homes selling above asking, working with a lender who can get you pre-qualified fast is a real advantage.
- Both: The slight dip in closed sales year over year isn’t alarming — it reflects the broader affordability environment nationally. Lancaster remains far stronger than most markets.
Market News: Interest Rates
The Fed’s pause on rate cuts is the dominant story in the rate market right now. Until the Fed sees meaningful progress on inflation or a notable softening in jobs data, expect rates to stay in their current range.
At Mortgage Craft, we monitor the market daily and will reach out to clients when a meaningful rate opportunity presents itself. If you have buyers on the fence, now is a great time to get them pre-qualified so they’re ready to move when the right home hits the market.